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How much should we believe correlations between Arctic cyclones and sea ice extent?

Presented by: 
Jamie Rae Met Office
Friday 15th September 2017 - 12:10 to 12:30
INI Seminar Room 1
I will present an analysis of Arctic summer cyclones in a climate model and in a reanalysis dataset, including results from a cyclone identification and tracking algorithm, and correlations between characteristics of the cyclones and September Arctic sea ice extent.  Results will be presented for output from model simulations at two resolutions, and for the reanalysis, using two different tracking variables (mean sea-level pressure and 850 hPa vorticity) for identification of the cyclones.  I will explore the influence of the tracking variable, the spatial resolution of the model, and spatial and temporal sampling, on the correlations.  I will conclude that the correlations obtained depend on all of these factors, and that care should be taken when interpreting the results of such analyses, especially when the focus is on one reanalysis, or output from one model, analysed with a single tracking variable for a short time period.
University of Cambridge Research Councils UK
    Clay Mathematics Institute London Mathematical Society NM Rothschild and Sons